Barringtonova deklaracija epidemiologov in znanstvenikov o COVID-19

Objavil/a naravno zdravje, dne 2020-10-15 ob 08:21:39
Velika Barringtonova deklaracija -
Kot epidemiologi nalezljivih bolezni in znanstveniki na področju javnega zdravja imamo resne pomisleke glede škodljivih vplivov prevladujočih politik COVID-19 na fizično in duševno zdravje ter priporočamo pristop, ki ga imenujemo osredotočena zaščita.
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Prihajamo tako z levice kot z desnice po vsem svetu. Kariero smo posvetili zaščiti ljudi. Trenutne politike osamitev povzročajo uničujoče učinke na kratkoročno in dolgoročno javno zdravje. Rezultati (če naštejemo le nekatere) vključujejo nižjo stopnjo cepljenja pri otrocih, poslabšanje bolezni srca in ožilja, manj presejalnih pregledov za raka in poslabšanje duševnega zdravja - kar vodi v večjo prekomerno umrljivost v prihodnjih letih, pri čemer najtežje breme nosijo delavski razred in mlajši člani. Preprečevanje šolanja učencev je velika krivica.
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Ohranitev teh ukrepov, dokler ni na voljo cepiva, bo povzročila nepopravljivo škodo, prikrajšani pa bodo nesorazmerno oškodovani...
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Na srečo naše razumevanje virusa raste. Vemo, da je ranljivost za smrt zaradi virusa COVID-19 pri starejših in nemočnih več kot tisočkrat večja kot pri mladih. Za otroke je COVID-19 manj nevaren kot številne druge škodljive snovi, vključno z gripo.
Ko se v populaciji gradi imuniteta, tveganje za okužbo za vse - vključno z ranljivimi - pada. Vemo, da bodo vse populacije sčasoma dosegle čredno imunost - tj. točko, ko bo stopnja novih okužb stabilna - in da ji lahko pomaga (vendar ni odvisno) cepivo. Naš cilj bi torej moral biti čim bolj zmanjšati smrtnost in socialno škodo, dokler ne dosežemo čredne imunosti.
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Najbolj sočuten pristop, ki uravnava tveganja in koristi doseganja čredne imunosti, je omogočiti tistim, ki jim grozi smrt, normalno življenje, da si z naravno okužbo ustvarijo odpornost proti virusu, hkrati pa bolje zaščitijo tiste, ki so na najvišji ravni tveganja. Temu pravimo osredotočena zaščita.
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Sprejetje ukrepov za zaščito ranljivih oseb mora biti osrednji cilj odzivov javnega zdravja na COVID-19. Na primer, domovi za ostarele bi morali uporabljati osebje s pridobljeno imunostjo in pogosto opravljati PCR testiranje drugega osebja in vseh obiskovalcev. Rotacijo osebja je treba čim bolj zmanjšati. Upokojenci, ki živijo doma, bi morali imeti dostavo živil in drugih potrebščin na dom. Kadar je mogoče, naj se družinski člani srečujejo zunaj in ne znotraj. Izvesti je mogoče obsežen in podroben seznam ukrepov, vključno s pristopi k večgeneracijskim gospodinjstvom, ki so v obsegu in zmožnostih zdravstvenih delavcev.
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Tistim, ki niso ranljivi, bi morali takoj dovoliti, da nadaljujejo življenje kot običajno. Vsakdo naj izvaja preproste higienske ukrepe, kot je umivanje rok in bivanje doma, ko je bolan, da bi zmanjšal prag imunosti črede. Šole in univerze bi morale biti odprte za osebno poučevanje. Nadaljevati je treba obštudijske dejavnosti, kot je šport. Mladi odrasli z majhnim tveganjem bi morali delati normalno in ne od doma. Odprte bi morale biti restavracije in druga podjetja. Umetnost, glasba, šport in druge kulturne dejavnosti bi se morale nadaljevati. Ljudje, ki so bolj ogroženi, lahko sodelujejo, če želijo, medtem ko družba kot celota uživa zaščito, ki jo ranljivi dobijo preko tistih, ki so ustvarili čredno imuniteto.
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4. oktobra 2020 je bila ta izjava v Great Barringtonu v ZDA podpisana in podpisana s strani:
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Deklaracijo je podpisalo do 10.10. 2020

7,736
znanstvenikov na področju medicine
18,207
zdravstvenih terapevtov
in 290.844 ljudi
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current signature count up to 24.10.2020

concerned citizens
568,543
medical & public health scientists
11,103
medical practitioners
30,997
Martin Kulldorff , profesor medicine na univerzi Harvard, biostatist in epidemiolog s strokovnim znanjem pri odkrivanju in spremljanju izbruhov nalezljivih bolezni in ocenjevanju varnosti cepiv.
Dr. Sunetra Gupta , profesorica na univerzi v Oxfordu, epidemiologinja z imunologijo, razvojem cepiv in matematičnim modeliranjem nalezljivih bolezni.
Jay Bhattacharya , profesor na medicinski fakulteti Univerze Stanford, zdravnik, epidemiolog, zdravstveni ekonomist in strokovnjak za javno zdravstveno politiko, ki se osredotoča na nalezljive bolezni in ranljivo prebivalstvo.
Podpisniki izjave
Znanstveniki iz medicine in javnega zdravja ter zdravniki
Laura Lazzeroni , profesorica psihiatrije in vedenjskih znanosti ter biomedicinskih podatkov, Medicinska šola Univerze Stanford, ZDA
Dr. Michael Levitt , biofizik in profesor strukturne biologije, Univerza Stanford, ZDA.
Prejemnik Nobelove nagrade za kemijo za leto 2013.
Dr. Rajiv Bhatia , zdravnik, epidemiolog in strokovnjak za javno politiko pri upravi za veterane, ZDA
Dr. Stephen Bremner , profesor medicinske statistike, Univerza v Sussexu, Anglija
Anthony J Brookes , profesor genetike na Univerzi v Leicesterju v Angliji
Helen Colhoun , profesorica medicinske informatike in epidemiologije, in zdravnica za javno zdravje, Univerza v Edinburghu, Škotska
Angus Dalgleish , onkolog, strokovnjak za nalezljive bolezni in profesor, Medicinska šola St. George's Hospital, Univerza v Londonu, Anglija
Dr. Sylvia Fogel , strokovnjakinja za avtizem in psihiatrinja iz splošne bolnišnice Massachusetts in inštruktorica na medicinski šoli Harvard, ZDA
Dr. Eitan Friedman , profesor medicine na Univerzi v Tel Avivu, Izrael
Dr. Uri Gavish , svetovalec za biomedicino, Izrael
Dr. Motti Gerlic , profesor klinične mikrobiologije in imunologije, Univerza v Tel Avivu, Izrael
Dr. Gabriela Gomes , matematik, ki preučuje epidemiologijo nalezljivih bolezni, profesorica na Univerzi v Strathclydeju na Škotskem
Dr. Mike Hulme , profesor človeške geografije, Univerza v Cambridgeu v Angliji
Dr. Michael Jackson , raziskovalec na Šoli za biološke znanosti Univerze v Canterburyju na Novi Zelandiji
Annie Janvier , profesorica pediatrije in klinične etike, Université de Montréal in Univerzitetni medicinski center Sainte-Justine, Kanada
David Katz , zdravnik in predsednik, True Health Initiative in ustanovitelj Yale University Prevention Research Center, ZDA
Andrius Kavaliunas , epidemiolog in docent na Karolinskem inštitutu na Švedskem
David Livermore , mikrobiolog, epidemiolog nalezljivih bolezni in profesor na Univerzi v vzhodni Angliji v Angliji
Jonas Ludvigsson , pediater, epidemiolog in profesor na Karolinskem inštitutu in višji zdravnik v Örebro University Hospital, Švedska
Paul McKeigue , zdravnik, moderator bolezni in profesor epidemiologije in javnega zdravja, Univerza v Edinburghu, Škotska
Cody Meissner , profesor pediatrije, strokovnjak za razvoj cepiv, učinkovitost in varnost. Medicinska šola Univerze Tufts, ZDA
Dr. Ariel Munitz , profesor klinične mikrobiologije in imunologije, Univerza v Tel Avivu, Izrael
Yaz Gulnur Muradoglu , profesor financ, direktor Delovne skupine za vedenjske finance, Univerza Queen Mary v Londonu, Anglija
Dr. Partha P. Majumder , profesorica in ustanoviteljica Nacionalnega inštituta za biomedicinsko genomiko, Kalyani, Indija
Dr. Udi Qimron , profesor klinične mikrobiologije in imunologije, Univerza v Tel Avivu, Izrael
Dr. Matthew Ratcliffe , profesor filozofije, specializiran za filozofijo duševnega zdravja, Univerza v Yorku, Anglija
Mario Recker , raziskovalec malarije in izredni profesor, Univerza v Exeterju v Angliji
Eyal Shahar , zdravnik, epidemiolog in profesor (emeritus) za javno zdravje, Univerza v Arizoni, ZDA
Karol Sikora , zdravnica, onkologinja in profesorica medicine na Univerzi v Buckinghamu v Angliji
Matthew Strauss , kritični zdravnik in docent medicine, Queen's University, Kanada
Dr. Rodney Sturdivant , znanstvenik za nalezljive bolezni in izredni profesor za biostatistiko, Univerza Baylor, ZDA
Dr. Simon Thornley , epidemiolog in biostatist z Univerze v Aucklandu na Novi Zelandiji
Dr. Ellen Townsend , profesorica psihologije, vodja raziskovalne skupine Self-Harm, Univerza v Nottinghamu, Anglija
Dr. Lisa White , profesorica modeliranja in epidemiologije na univerzi Oxford v Angliji
Dr. Simon Wood, biostatist in profesor na Univerzi v Edinburghu na Škotskem
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Skupina vrhunskih znanstvenika, njih trideset i osam, objavila je početkom listopada deklaraciju o pandemiji pod nazivom »Great Barrington Declaration«. Troje glavnih autora, profesori Kulldorff, Gupta i Bhattacharya, rade na najboljim svjetskim sveučilištima – Harvard, Oxford i Stanford. Supotpisnici deklaracije, među njima i nobelovac Michael Levitt, elitni su predstavnici svojih institucija iz Sjedinjenih Država, Ujedinjenoga Kraljevstva, Njemačke, Izraela, Indije, Kanade, Švedske i Novoga Zelanda. Osnovna poruka i sadržaj deklaracije jest upozorenje o razarajućim zdravstvenim učincima uvedenih mjera, poziv na povratak društvenoga života »na staro« te ponuda novoga pristupa skrbi o ugroženima pod nazivom »fokusirana ili usredotočena zaštita«. 

Protiv »novoga normalnoga«

U samo nekoliko dana deklaraciju je potpisom podržalo više od 300 tisuća znanstvenika, stručnjaka, liječnika, medicinskih sestara i zabrinutih građana.

U samo nekoliko dana deklaraciju je potpisom podržalo više od 300 tisuća znanstvenika, stručnjaka, liječnika, medicinskih sestara i zabrinutih građana. Ta je deklaracija dosad najsnažniji i najvažniji dokument kojim se preispituje smisao i opravdanost javnozdravstvenih politika prema pandemiji.

Ta je deklaracija dosad najsnažniji i najvažniji dokument kojim se preispituje smisao i opravdanost javnozdravstvenih politika prema pandemiji. To je dokument kojim se znanstvena zajednica konačno oglasila i uključila u raspravu o gorućem problemu čovječanstva. Suprotno procjenama i preporukama službenih tijela, stožera ili pojedinih vlada, autori deklaracije eksplicitno zahtijevaju povratak običnoga života, obnovu kulturnih, športskih i gospodarskih aktivnosti, otvaranje svih ugostiteljskih objekata, redovitu nastavu u školama i sveučilištima, a umjesto rada na daljinu predlažu povratak na radno mjesto… 

»Teška nepravda«

Ti se zahtjevi u prvom redu odnose na najveći dio zdravije populacije koja će s vremenom i bez posebnih posljedica »steći imunitet prirodnom infekcijom«. Ako se netko i razboli, piše u deklaraciji, »neka ostane kod kuće«. Oduzimanje prava na normalan život smatra se »teškom nepravdom«, a štetne posljedice mogu biti ireverzibilne: »Sadašnje politike upravljanja pandemijom imaju razarajuće učinke na javno zdravlje. Znatno je smanjena procijepljenost djece, pogoršani su klinički ishodi srčanih bolesnika, preventivni pregledi za rak postali su rijetki, ugroženo je mentalno zdravlje ljudi, a sve to će povećati smrtnost u sljedećim godinama.«

Fokusirana zaštita

Za ugrožene skupine pak autori deklaracije predlažu intenzivnu skrb: »Srećom, sada bolje razumijemo virus i znamo da je za stariju populaciju rizik tisuću puta veći. Također znamo da je za djecu rizik neznatan u odnosu na druge ugroze, uključujući gripu.« Javnozdravstvenu politiku treba usmjeriti prema starijoj populaciji i prema ljudima s kroničnim bolestima, što se u deklaraciji naziva »fokusiranom zaštitom«. U deklaraciji se predlažu neke konkretne mjere, ali one su ionako poznate zdravstvenim djelatnicima. Društvo treba disati punim plućima kako bi se izbjegle kolateralne žrtve zatvaranja i kako bi se omogućila učinkovita pomoć starijima, bolesnima i siromašnima. 

Znanstveni legitimitet prigovora

Deklaracija o pandemiji prvi je ozbiljan znanstveni prosvjed u kojem zajednički sudjeluju svjetski poznati stručnjaci iz dvadesetak prestižnih sveučilišta.

Deklaracija o pandemiji prvi je ozbiljan znanstveni prosvjed u kojem zajednički sudjeluju svjetski poznati stručnjaci iz dvadesetak prestižnih sveučilišta. Sve donedavno prigovori znanstvenika protiv mjera samoizolacije, tjelesnoga razmaka ili prekrivanja dišnoga sustava bili su pojedinačni i brzo su bili obilježeni etiketom hereze.

Sve donedavno prigovori znanstvenika protiv mjera samoizolacije, tjelesnoga razmaka ili prekrivanja dišnoga sustava bili su pojedinačni i brzo su bili obilježeni etiketom hereze. Imena i institucije u potpisu ove deklaracije nitko razuman ne može ignorirati, deklaracija je intelektualni izazov svima koji misle da su stajališta i upute medicinskoga establišmenta neupitne. Stručni stožeri, znanstveni savjeti i medijski gurui epidemiologije dobili su tom deklaracijom kompetentnu konkurenciju i kritiku, a svaki laik koji sumnja u razmjernost uvedenih mjera sada ima oslonac za svoja stajališta. 

Nema više teorije zavjere?

Svi pokreti i inicijative koje su prije objave deklaracije imale (medijsku) stigmu neodgovornih uličnih protesta nakon ove deklaracije imaju znanstveno pokriće za svoje zahtjeve. Stručni i etički autoritet deklaracije mnogima će postati vjetar u leđa, a nekima gromobran, odnosno zaštita od službenih optužaba da su teoretičari zavjera, »antivakseri« ili »antilockersi«. Moguće je očekivati medijsku i političku šutnju o deklaraciji iz Great Barringtona, no ona je objavljena, dostupna (https://gbdeclaration.org) čak i na hrvatskom jeziku, te će zasigurno biti važno uporište i polazište za preispitivanje načina upravljanja pandemijskom krizom.

Jedno je sigurno, autori i supotpisnici deklaracije nisu jedini tražitelji povratka na staro niti jedini zagovaratelji drukčijega pristupa bolesti COVID-19. Oni su ad-hoc zajednica znanstvenika, profesora i liječnika, a njihovo je okupljanje zapravo vrh sante leda u kojem je zgusnuto neslaganje i nezadovoljstvo golemoga broja stručnjaka i laika. Jasno, objavljena deklaracija nije konačna istina o upravljanju i posljedicama pandemije, nego je dosad najsnažniji prigovor iz redova vrhunskih znanstvenika, koji se može sažeti u poviku: »Ovako više ne može!«

https://www.glas-koncila.hr/dosad-najsnazniji-prigovor-deklaracija-o-pandemiji/?fbclid=IwAR0Wip2WuBk99N6KuS86kkOJjOMRxqlD3rd4g90m_JAHdLNlWOpJk99GdbM

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https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/10/09/lockdown-is-a-terrible-experiment/?fbclid=IwAR0ktqZlPMVL185At2iN2mQ2qg8ges2rEfSEfwFuWsgTDVNkSNo64tAv52k#.X7DsK_nNxr2.facebook

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Dr. Roger Hodkinson o odzivu kanadske vlade na COVID

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LbD1rWkF-Q&feature=youtu.be

 (Aaron Paquette): Oh, dobro, radi bi vas slišali, izvolite. Dr. Roger Hodkinskon: Hvala lepa. Cenim priložnost, da vas lahko nagovorim o tej zelo pomembni zadevi. Govoril bom v laičnem jeziku in brez ovinkov. To je nasprotna zgodba, zato ne pomislite takoj, da sem šarlatan. Na kratko bom opisal moje reference, da boste razumeli od kod prihajam v smislu osnove znanja pri vsem tem. Sem zdravnik, specialist za patologijo, ki vključuje virologijo. Šolal sem se na Univerzi Cambridge v Veliki Britaniji in sem bivši predsednik sekcije za patologijo pri Zdravniški zvezi, bil sem tudi pridruženi profesor na Fakulteti za medicino, kjer sem veliko poučeval. Bil sem predsednik izpitne komisije za patologijo pri Royal College of Physicians (Kraljevem kolegiju zdravnikov) v Ottawi, a pojdimo k bistvu. Trenutno sem predsednik biotehnološkega podjetja v Severni Karolini, ki prodaja teste za COVID-19 in lahko bi rekli, da nekaj vem o vsem tem. Bistvo je preprosto v tem: obstaja popolnoma neutemeljena javna histerija, ki jo vodijo mediji in politiki. To je nezaslišano, to je največja prevara, ki je bila kdajkoli izvedena na nič hudega sluteči javnosti. Ničesar drugega ni mogoče narediti za zadržanje tega virusa kot zaščititi starejše, bolj ranljive ljudi. Na to lahko gledamo nič drugače kot na hudo sezono gripe, to ni Ebola, to ni SARS. Imamo politiko, ki se gre medicino in to je zelo nevarna igra.
Ni potrebno nikakršno delovanje razen tega, kar se je dogajalo lani, ko smo imeli gripo. Nisem se počutil dobro, ostali smo doma, jedli piščančjo juho z rezanci, nismo obiskali babice in sami smo se odločili, kdaj se bomo vrnili na delo. Nismo imeli nikogar in nismo potrebovali nikogar, ki bi nam to rekel. Maske so popolnoma neuporabne, ni prav nobenega dokaza za njihovo učinkovitost. Maske iz papirja in blaga so preprosto znak vrline in večinoma se sploh ne nosijo pravilno. Je popolnoma smešno gledati te nesrečne in neizobražene ljudi, ne v smislu kupcev, kako hodijo naokoli kot glodavci lemingi in ubogajo brez osnove znanja in dajejo masko na svoj obraz. Tudi socialna distanca je neuporabna, ker se COVID širi tudi kot aerosol, ki potuje okoli 30 m preden pade na tla. Zaprtja so imela tako strašne nepričakovane posledice, vse bi moralo biti odprto jutri, kot smo navedli v Veliki Barringtonovi deklaraciji, ki sem jo razdelil pred tem srečanjem. In še nekaj o testiranju. Želim poudariti, da sem v poslu testiranja za COVID. Želim poudariti, da pozitiven rezultat testa ne pomeni – debelo podčrtano – ne pomeni klinične infekcije, pač pa samo poganja histerijo v javnosti in vsa testiranja bi morali ustaviti, dokler ne pride v bolnišnico nekdo, ki ima respiratorni problem. Vse kar bi bilo potrebno narediti, je zaščita ranljivih in vsem v domovih za starejše vsak dan dati 3000-5000 IU vitamina D...za katerega se je pokazalo, da drastično zmanjšuje možnost okužbe. In vse bi vas rad spomnil, da statistika naše province kaže, da je tveganje za smrt za ljudi pod 65 letom starosti v tej provinci 1 na 300.000, to vam mora biti jasno. Prekomeren odziv, ki ga imate, brez dokazov zanj, je popolnoma smešen glede na posledice delovanja kot ga predlagate. Razne vrste samomorov, stečaji podjetij, pogrebi, poroke itd...vse to je nezaslišano. Gre samo za hudo gripo in to morate dojeti. Naj se ljudje sami odločajo, politiki se ne vpletajte v zdravstvo. Vodi vas glavni zdravstveni uradnik v tej provinci (Alberta v Kanadi). Jaz sem absolutno zgrožen, da je to šlo tako daleč in jutri bi morali prenehati s tem. Hvala lepa.

The lockdowns around the world have been justified on the basis of ‘The Science’. But now a group of eminent infectious-disease experts have come together to sign the Great Barrington Declaration, calling for an end to the lockdowns and for more resources to be devoted to protecting the vulnerable. One of the three main signatories is Martin Kulldorff, professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School. spiked caught up with him to find out more.

spiked: What is your driving concern about lockdown, and what compelled you to sign the Great Barrington Declaration?

Martin Kulldorff: The media suggests there is a scientific consensus in favour of lockdown, but that is not the case. I have two concerns. One is about the collateral damage lockdown causes to other aspects of public health. One of the basic principles of public health is that you do not just look at one disease – you have to look at health as a whole, including all kinds of diseases, over a long period. That is not what has been done with Covid-19. As a public-health scientist, it is stunning to see how focused people are on this one disease and on the short term. The collateral damage is very tragic: cardiovascular disease outcomes are worse, cancer screenings are down, and there are mental-health issues, for example.

My second concern is that, even when we put broader public health to one side and focus just on Covid, the current approach does not make sense. We sought to flatten the curve in the spring so as not to overload hospitals, and that succeeded in almost every country. But trying to suppress the disease with contact tracing, testing and isolation, together with severe lockdowns, is not going to solve the problem. It will just push things into the future.

spiked: How should we be dealing with the virus instead?

Kulldorff: We should not do nothing, and just let Covid rip through society. But we should not do a general lockdown either. Even with a lockdown we will still have a lot of people, young and old, who get the disease, and a lot of the older people will die. The key to minimising mortality in the long term is to do what we, in the declaration, call ‘focused protection’: focusing efforts on high-risk individuals, and letting young people live their lives normally. Young people should still wash their hands and stay home when they are sick. But they should be able to have in-person teaching in schools and universities, and be allowed to take part in sports and so on. Restaurants should be allowed to open.

In this scenario, if we protect the elderly more effectively, very few will be infected. Instead, lots of young people will be infected. Shifting the balance of infection toward young people will drastically reduce mortality. We cannot completely protect the elderly, but the longer we drag out the pandemic, the more difficult it is to do so. They are actually better protected if we don’t have a lockdown.

Anyone can be infected. But we know that there is a difference in risk between age groups. And it’s not just a two-fold or five-fold or even 10-fold excess risk. It’s not even 100-fold. The difference in risk between the oldest and the youngest is more than 1,000-fold. That is huge.

Covid-19 is our enemy, and we have to utilise its weaknesses. Covid is not a dangerous disease for young people. For children, it is much less dangerous than seasonal flu. For example, Sweden was the only country that kept schools open throughout the height of the pandemic in the spring. There were no masks and there was no social distancing. Out of 1.8million children there were exactly zero deaths from Covid-19 during this period. And there were only a few hospitalisations. It was much milder than the seasonal flu.

spiked: You’ve described the risks Covid poses to different age groups. But is it not also the case that the harms of the lockdown are unevenly distributed?

Kulldorff: That’s certainly true. Lockdown is a double whammy for the working class. In terms of Covid itself, we are protecting low-risk college students and professionals who can work from home, while working-class people still have to go to work. We are basically throwing the working class under the bus, protecting those of us who are more privileged. The working class is carrying the burden of generating the immunity that will eventually protect us all.

The collateral damage of lockdown is also hurting the working class. Those of us who can work from home are less likely to lose our jobs. But if you work as a waiter in a restaurant, for example, it’s different. And of course, the working class has much less of a safety net. The more privileged are better able to take a financial hit. But the working class doesn’t have that luxury.

spiked: One thing that is not mentioned in the declaration is mass testing and contact tracing. That seems to be a major part of most governments’ strategies. The British government, for example, has spent more on its contact-tracing system than it spent on the 2012 Olympics. Do you think this will work, or is it misguided?

Kulldorff: First of all, contact tracing, testing and case isolation is a well-established method for infectious-disease control. For some diseases it is a critical tool. But we don’t use this method for annual influenza. It doesn’t work for that. And it doesn’t work for Covid if it has already spread in the population, in the absence of lockdown measures.

For nursing homes, testing is critical. If staff have already had Covid and are immune, we don’t need to test them. But those who have not had it should be tested frequently, because they could otherwise infect the residents who are at a higher risk. Testing is also important in hospital settings. There is a rationale for random testing, too, not so much to know if a particular person is infected, but more to monitor the spread of the disease in society.

On the other hand, there is no public-health purpose for the mass testing of college students or school children. It’s just damaging, and makes people afraid, meaning schools get closed.

spiked: Some people argue it will take too long to achieve herd immunity. What is your take on that issue?

Kulldorff: We have herd immunity for lots of other pathogens, some through vaccines, but most through natural infection. It is therefore far-fetched and ignorant to think it will not happen for Covid. It is true that we don’t know how long immunity to Covid lasts. For some infections, like measles, we get lifelong immunity. But for others, we don’t. If we are to get Covid again several years down the line, however, it is likely it will be much milder than the first time.

We are never going to get rid of Covid. It is going to be endemic, just like other coronaviruses. But one thing that makes a big difference is that every year new people are born. They are susceptible to Covid, but for children it is a very mild disease. That is an advantage we have in fighting Covid compared to, say, measles, which is a very serious disease for children. If you look at it with a long-term perspective, if everybody gets Covid as a child, it is not going to be a major problem.

spiked: Have people lost sight of the bigger picture? There seems to be little concern about what current measures might mean in 10 years’ time, or even any consideration of how we have dealt with public-health emergencies in the past.

Kulldorff: It’s a unique experiment, and it’s a terrible experiment. I’m amazed – as are many of my colleagues – at the total focus on this disease. In a short time, we are throwing all the principles of public health out the window. Most countries in Europe had a pandemic-preparedness plan which did not recommend lockdowns, but instead proposed a risk-based strategy to protect those at high risk, which is actually the same as the focused protection we put forward in the Great Barrington Declaration. What we are proposing is, therefore, nothing revolutionary. Many people have been advocating for it throughout this pandemic, but they have not had much attention.

spiked: Do you think there is a danger that the current measures could become the established way of dealing with health crises?

Kulldorff: No, because it will be so clear down the road that what we did was a big mistake. What I am concerned about is that the trust in science and scientists, which has already taken a hit, will get even worse. This is worrying when thinking about future health crises. For example, some people in the United States don’t want to talk to the public-health department about contact tracing. They don’t want to divulge personal information because there is a huge lack of trust between public-health authorities and the public. That is a very bad thing, because contact tracing is critical for tackling some diseases. Let’s say that two years from now we have another pathogen, for which we require contact tracing. And say people don’t want to cooperate with the public-health agencies – that could have hugely detrimental effects.

Martin Kulldorff was speaking to Fraser Myers. You can sign the Great Barrington Declaration here.

 

DOSAD NAJSNAŽNIJI PRIGOVOR Deklaracija o pandemiji | Glas Koncila

Skupina vrhunskih znanstvenika, njih trideset i osam, objavila je početkom listopada deklaraciju o pandemiji pod nazivom »Great Barrington Declaration«. Troje glavnih autora, profesori Kulldorff, Gupta i Bhattacharya, rade na najboljim svjetskim sveučilištima – Harvard, Oxford i Stanford. Supotpisnici deklaracije, među njima i nobelovac Michael Levitt, elitni su predstavnici svojih institucija iz Sjedinjenih Država, Ujedinjenoga Kraljevstva, […]

Za komentiranje morate biti prijavljeni.
Gost
0
Nov 05, 2020
Kaj je narobe s to deklaracijo? To, da za njo stojijo neoliberalci.

http://www.gisborneherald.co.nz/column/20201018/barrington-declaration-not-so-great/

Barrington declaration not so great – The Gisborne Herald

After eight full months of the global pandemic, the pressure to keep economies open and let the chips (or rather, the el
#4
naravno zdravje
1
Oct 24, 2020
To je prevod neznanega avtorja. Hvala za opozorilo

:D res smešno

Sicer so tudi ukrepi brez repa in glave, zdaj maske gor, zdaj dol, zdaj na tržnici, zdaj doma v sobi, zdaj ponoči po gozdu, zdaj lahko Krek brez maske hodi, ker je utrujen,..ipd
#3
Zim Zelen
1
Oct 24, 2020
Pobrano zgoraj:
Ne vem ali je to GOOGLE prevod ali je neka napaka pri prenosu :-o ?

"Tisti, ki niso pavli, bi morali takoj dovoliti, da nadaljujejo življenje kot običajno. Vsi naj izvaja preproste higienske utehe, kot je pranje rok in bivanje doma, ko je bolan, da bi se umanje prag imunosti črede."
#2
naravno zdravje
0
Oct 24, 2020
Znanost proti zaklepanju (lockdown)
#1
naravno zdravje
naravno zdravje
Objavil/a 2020-10-15 08:21:39 (Oct 15, 2020)
Starejša objava Novejša objava
DOSAD NAJSNAŽNIJI PRIGOVOR Deklaracija o pandemiji | Glas Koncila

Skupina vrhunskih znanstvenika, njih trideset i osam, objavila je početkom listopada deklaraciju o pandemiji pod nazivom »Great Barrington Declaration«. Troje glavnih autora, profesori Kulldorff, Gupta i Bhattacharya, rade na najboljim svjetskim sveučilištima – Harvard, Oxford i Stanford. Supotpisnici deklaracije, među njima i nobelovac Michael Levitt, elitni su predstavnici svojih institucija iz Sjedinjenih Država, Ujedinjenoga Kraljevstva, […]

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