Kaj je to razdolževanje podjetij?

Objavil/a Marko Pavlišič, dne 2014-07-09 ob 09:35:29

Pogosto se sliši, da so podjetja v Sloveniji preveč zadolžena. Toliko, da ne morejo več najemati novih kreditov. Ob tem, se bi vsaj kdo lahko vprašal, kam pa so šla sredstva, ki so jih podjetja z to prekomerno zadolžitvijo dobila? Kje so?

Prekomerna zadolžitev pomeni enostavno le to, da imaš razmerje med dolgom in kapitalom preveliko. In banka več ni sigurna, da bo svoj kredit dobila poplačan. Visoka zadolžitev pomeni visoke stroške za obresti, ki lahko podjetje hitro spravijo v rdeče številke. Če pa se zgodi najslabše, in gre podjetje v likvidacijo, lahko potem kapital ne zadošča za poplačilo in banki ostane luknja. Tipično je nekako varno razmerje pol:pol.

Ampak, ker so bili v preteklosti časi, ko so banke denar ponujale zelo poceni, in je izgledalo da bo rast (recimo cen nepremičnin) trajala v neskončnost, da smo končno našliformulo večne mladosti in lepote, oz. gospodrske rasti, se je marsikateri podjetnik prekomerno zadolžil. Zakaj bi iskal lastniški kapital, če lahko dolžniškega. Banka se ti več ali manj ne meša v poslovanje, novi solastnik pač. Da se je to zgodilo, niti ni čudno. Slovenski podjetniki in "podjetniki" so se s takšno situacijo soočili prvič. In se nanjo prilimali kot muhe na muholovko. In ko je prišla kriza so bili večinoma na to nepripravljeni.

In, ker obresti za upadel promet predstavljajo hudo veliko breme, se je potrebno razdolžiti. V grobem sta dva načina. Lahko izvedeš dezinvestiranje. Prodaš pač tisto, v kar si sposojen denar investiral. In odplačaš dolg, kolikor gre. Vsi vemo, da avto že ob nakupu takoj izgubi en del vrednosti. Podobno je z vsem ostalim. Dezinvestiranje pomeni veliko izgubo. Ampak srečen tisti, ki sploh lahko kaj dezinvestira. Ker v večini so se krediti porabili bolj za sprotno potrošnjo. Dvige plač, kakšno nagradico managerju, nakup nujnih osnovnih sredstev za širitev osnovne dejavnosti na sposojo luksuznih vozil in navtično dejavnost.

Druga pot je seveda konverzija dolga v lastniški delež. Banke tega niso vesele. Osnovna dejavnost bank ni upravljanje podjetij, da bi bile lastnice le teh. Njihova dejavnost je posojanje denarja. Ampak v sili volk muhe žre, in bodo tudi pristala na kakšno konverzijo. Dodaten problem tukaj seveda je, da za to nimajo na voljo niti ustreznega kadra niti znanja. Kar pa tipično le pomeni, da bodo zelo konzervativna, in bodo zahtevala še večji delež lastništva, kot bi bilo morda smiselno.

Kar pa le dodatno destimulira lastnika, da se za to odloči, ker po njegovem mnenju je on sam itak nekaj najboljšega, kar se je podjetju zgodilo, in se mu že ves čas dogaja zgolj krivica. Zato bo logično z konverzijo odlašal kolikor se bo dalo, in pri tem razmišljal, kako naj vsaj del svojega premoženja reši. Če ga že ni.

Znašli smo se torej v situaciji, ko oba glavna akterja, lastnki in banke, le odlašata, podjetja pa še naprej tonejo. In zato ni čudno, da potem politiki prihajajo z idejami, kako bi z nekimi državnimi garancijami vseeno podjetjem omogočili nova sredstva. In to bo še zadnji žebelj v  krsto slovenske gospodarske zgodbe. Če damo še na ta način sedanjim lastnikom neke vrste podporo in potrditev, da delajo dobro, smo zadevo zaključili. Obdržali bomo lastnike, ki so že dokazano slabo upravljali in pridelali še novo bančno luknjo.

V tej situaciji, mora DUTB brezkompromisno izvesti nekaj konverzij dolga v lastniški delež, in le tega čim prej prodati na trgu. Za zgled. In s tem poslati jasen signal vsem zavoženim lastnikom, da bodo izgubili vse. Vse. Dokler še kar upajo, da se bodo nekako izvlekli z neko garancijo države, bodo pač nekako upali in po možnosti iz podjetja še vlekli kar se vleči da. Ko pride garancija pa še ostalo. Prezadolžene lastnike mora zagrabiti panika. In ja. Marsikoga že je. In je potegnil svoje politične vzvode, da so se pojavile ideje, kako naj se jih reši.

Seveda pa se garancije predstavljajo kot reševanje delovnih mest. Ali bomo res dali volku za čuvat ovce? Ali je res nekdo, ki je spravil podjetje na rob, najboljši upravljalec le tega. Saj s konverzijo lastništva delovna mesta ne izpuhtijo. Še več, banka lahko še naprej celo obdrži isti manangement, če ocenjuje da le ta dela dobro. Ampak računati, da se bo nekaj spremenilo, ne da bi karkoli spremenili, pa pač ne gre.

Skratka zavzemanje za neke garancijske sheme, ni nič drugega kot borba za to, da lastniki še naprej ostanejo lastniki. In, če to povežemo z nasprotovanjem tako vspostavitvi SDHja kot ZDIJZja postane jasno, da gre za isti krog ljudi. V grobem za krog okoli socialnihdemokratov, ki se trudi vspostavljati svojo kapitalsko elito, čeprav gre zgodba seveda precej širše.

Ena od ključnih lastnosti kapitalizma in svobodnega tržnega gospodarstva je konkurenca. Ljudje med seboj tekmujemo s svojimi znanji in sposobnostmi. Uspešnejši dobijo več. In z tem več delajo naprej. In ni nekega centralnega komiteja, ki bi povedal kdo dela dobro in kdo slabo, kdo si zasluži upravljati več kapitala in kdo ne. To pove trg. Se pravi kupci. In na tem trgu so tako naši izdelki kot tudi storitve. In tudi upravljanje kapitala, ta osnovna funkcija lastnika, je zgolj storitev na trgu. Kjer dober raste in slab izgublja.

Če bomo v Sloveniji, z nekimi garancijskimi shemami, dopustili da slabi lastniki ne izgubljajo, bomo večno obsojeni na slabe lastnike. Namesto, da bi slabi lastniki postali dobri čistilci (tisti z metlo in cunjo) bomo obdržali slabe lastnike in slabe čistilce, ki bi sicer bili profesorji. Tako kot je v kriznih časih službo izgubilo skoraj 100.000 brezposelnih, bi bilo prav, da bi svoj kapital izgubilo vsa par tisoč zanič lastnikov. Kapital, ki so ga že davno zapravili. Nimajo ga več. Le banke z državno garancijo jim lahko dajejo iluzijo, da so še vedno pomembni, bogati in cenjeni.

Razdolževanje podjetij je primarno torej razlastninjenje kapitalskih elit, ki svojega dela niso opravljale kot sposobni lastniki ampak kot razvajeni otročaji, navajeni, da jim bogati starši pokrijejo vse njihove mimosunke. Ko boste to dojeli, vam bo takoj jasno, zakaj DUTB doživlja takšen odpor. Zakaj se predlaga garancijske sheme. Zakaj tapkamo na mestu, med tem ko drugi že plezajo ven iz krize. Za denar gre. Za kapital. Ki bi ga nekateri radi obdržali, in nekateri politiki jim pri tem držijo štango.

Original objalvjeno na mojem blogu.

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